Using heuristics is like that; the more data exists, the better they are. I suspect it will take some time to settle into the reality. Even on my 330, I keep the visible meters on average consumption since the last fill-up. Instant consumption is all over the place, and range responds to instant consumption. Even the average consumption moves around a a fair amount.
It might make some sense for BMW to temper the readings with some buffer that reduces as the remaining capacity lowers, but this is a complex calculation when you don’t want to be wrong on the high side. Plus, with a new batter design and the innovations in the motors, there’s likely not a lot of data.
I think of it like this: if I drive in Eco Pro on level highways in adaptive D until I hit 25%, then switch to Sport Boost and play with Launch Control, my range isn’t going to be what the car thought it was when it hit 25%!