There are multiple threads on this forum about the battery life and these issues. If your focus is primarily the battery, we know that batteries degrade, they do not fail suddenly (under normal use and conditions). So, year 9 they won't suddenly be unusable or have 5% of their previous capacity or something like that.

 

Hello I'm in the LifePO4 battery business for boats and its a known fact based on real experience that they have a limited cycles number with a capacity curve that is descending and never going up. The more you cycle the more they go down. Slowly but ultimately. But that is not my point.

My question was about the impression that without a battery recycling strategy, it gives the impression that the I4 is just a 5000 pounds Iphone that one day or another will deprecate because the battery is slowly but surely going away and for the majority of non educated futur buyers of your car, if its 8 years old then the car will be worth 20 % because the battery pack as new will be 30 000 $ or 40 000 $. That will be true if BMW doesn't do any effort toward a recycling program. Tesla has done it and they talk openly about it.

But maybe my question answer itself with the normal depreciatin of a car. quote "While different cars depreciate at different rates, it's a good rule of thumb to assume that a new car will lose approximately 20 percent of its value in the first year and 15 percent each year after that until, after 10 years, it's worth around 10 percent of what it originally cost "

So an I4 bought today is not the final car you would expect and need to be replaced in 5-6 years anyway. So the battery question might be irrelevant.

 

1. This is pure speculation based on what I've seen so far, but it is very unlikely the battery degradation will be over 15% in 10 years if properly maintained.
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First, I expect the BMW batteries to degrade less and more slowly than older technology batteries from other companies like Tesla.

Second, I expect there will be both BMW and third-party options for addressing cell replacement in the batteries. The i4 allows for cell replacement and doesn't require the replacement of the entire battery (like, for example, Tesla does).

 

Good point. The i4 has been designed with serviceability in mind. We'll likely see today's i4's for 20+ years on the road. Brushes get replaced at 200,000-300,000 miles but that's pretty much it in terms of large maintenance. Everything else is brake/fix. The wheels are not going to fall off today's i4 once new battery tech comes out.

 

I think the OP hints at this in their post #4, but my take on this is that it's not really going to matter much that far down the line for the vast majority of owners.

The question isn't "Is someone going to replace this battery or maintain the car to 300k miles", it is do you see yourself doing that?

If so, then the bit about depreciation isn't going to matter but replaceability does. My thought is that BMW will support this battery technology for at least the minimum duration of the service life of the car, so in theory you would be able to swap out and get another X number of years out of the car but at a steep cost, likely more than the value of the car at that time. Math may/may not work out for you but more importantly consider also that software/cloud services/other technology components like sensors, ECUs, etc. tied to the car may also be deprecated down the line which would make it pretty difficult to justify keeping long term.

I just shudder thinking about using iDrive 8.x in 2034.

Reality is, EVs are bringing in a new, more accelerated product release era for cars and I'm not sure how I feel about it just yet.

 

I just shudder thinking about using iDrive 8.x in 2034.

Reality is, EVs are bringing in a new, more accelerated product release era for cars and I'm not sure how I feel about it just yet.

Completely i line with you ! EV are computers+electromechanic on wheel and will follow Moore's law in term of function evolution speed.

 

I just checked our 2015 i3 only lost 4% of battery after 50,000 miles with mostly AC charging. I think BMW knows what they are doing.

 

So my understanding is that most of these batteries will loose capacity over time. If the i4 m50 (19") loses 15% by 200k miles, the car can still do ~230 miles on a full charge, or 160 miles if you want to keep it between 10-80% per charge. That's still far longer than the average daily commute.
I think the far more likely scenario is the infotainment system doesn't recieve future updates, and like your phone becomes slower and more buggy with each passing year. At first, I wasn't concerned if for example the maps quit working. I can use the GPS on my phone. However, the screen handles all of the hvac comfort, drive settings, as well as music. That could make for a car that is barely usable if all functions handled by the screen are unavailable. And no doubt the repair costs for the infotainment system will be outrageous enough to exceed the 10% value of the car at that time.
Other thoughts on the life of the infotainment system?

 

So my understanding is that most of these batteries will loose capacity over time. If the i4 m50 (19") loses 15% by 200k miles, the car can still do ~230 miles on a full charge, or 160 miles if you want to keep it between 10-80% per charge. That's still far longer than the average daily commute.
I think the far more likely scenario is the infotainment system doesn't recieve future updates, and like your phone becomes slower and more buggy with each passing year. At first, I wasn't concerned if for example the maps quit working. I can use the GPS on my phone. However, the screen handles all of the hvac comfort, drive settings, as well as music. That could make for a car that is barely usable if all functions handled by the screen are unavailable. And no doubt the repair costs for the infotainment system will be outrageous enough to exceed the 10% value of the car at that time.
Other thoughts on the life of the infotainment system?

Why would what is working on the car stop working in the future? If the touchscreen dies, that would be a problem, but the software on the car can be expected to continue to function the way it is.

 

Prior to our M50, we owned a Ford Focus EV, which was very much first-generation EV technology, for 11 years. We’re talking about a time when the options were that (which nobody else bought, though it was a great car for us) and the Leaf.

We sold that Focus with 66,000 miles on it when we took delivery of the BMW. We sold it to a friend because I was that confident in how it was holding up. Given the limited range of that generation of EVs, we charged that thing every time we got home and we charged it to 100% every time. Before I sold it, I did several real-world driving battery capacity tests and it consistently showed about 85% of original capacity.

Anyway, this is obviously just the story of one car, but those numbers certainly gave me some confidence that battery degradation isn’t quite as bad as folks make it out or fear it to be. And I very much expect better from the much newer technology.

 

I just shudder thinking about using iDrive 8.x in 2034

My previous car (E Class Merc) was 14 years old when I got the i4.

The infotainment system in that was very limited because the world had gone digital over that period with the mobile phone dominating as a source of entertainment. In the Merc, there was no way to link a phone (not even an aux socket) so you were limited to radio (FM, no DAB) and CDs. It was a bit of a pain but funnily enough, the car still drove.

I don't envisage there being the same transition over the next fourteen years, and as long as Android Auto or Carplay continue to be supported then that will cater for all my needs. Even if they aren't, I will still have radio and I can dump music and podcasts on the USB stick, so it will never be the end of the world.

As you may gather, I intend keeping my i4 for 10+ years (like my previous cars). I don't see the point of throwing money at incremental improvements that bring little actual benefit.

 

Same for me!

Let's see whose car last longer.

😉

And once they are both bricked they could be used as matching bookends, LH to RH.

🤣

 

It's not that the battery will fail 1 day after year 8... 🤣 What made you believe that???? Anyway, if your battery degrades to a level which disturbs you, you can decide if you want to change those cells, or the full pack. I would guess that if the battery is down to 70% capacity after 8 years and I still have the car then I'll just continue to use it as it is, won't care about changing cells until the battery is down to 50-60%, if that ever happens. It is more likely that I'll buy a new car before year 8, not because of the battery, but because I never had a car for that long, and after 8 years there may be many other things which might need costly repair.

 

I'm technically convinced the battery degradation is following a very smooth curve - that is not the problem. You're right with the fact that after 8 years anyway we can't expect the car to have a valuable residual value. Its like a 8 years old computer Still working but !

 

There are plenty of 3rd party companies that build refurbed packs for LEAFs and Teslas. iX and i4 sales are high enough I can imagine in 5 years there will be enough of them on the road that there will be companies selling refurbed packs.

As for degradation... it happens. This person has some data backing some of my theories (that we should be keeping our EVs around 40% SoC which is storage charge - but I didn't realize calendar aging was such a critical factor in battery health).

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/some-new-data-from-research-on-tesla-model-3-cells.311793/

 

Exactly this. As EVs become more commonplace you're going to find specialist shops popping up around all of the cities just like you have Asian and Euro/German specialist shops now. Battery packs can be rebuilt or refurbished and aftermarket replacements will eventually become a thing. And just like how a dealership replaced BMW engine is upwards of $20,000 and it's less than half of that at an Indie shop, I imagine battery and drive units will be replaced at a much reduced cost outside of the dealership once these warranties are over.

 

Glad to hear that the screen isn't bespoke and a good candidate for aftermarket support. Has anyone touched behind the screen on a long drive? It gets nice and hot back there and heat generally isn't good for longevity of anything.

 

Our 9 year old Leaf was still doing great. I don't think you'll need to move on from the i4 in 8 years unless you want to.

 

It would be interesting if by that time there was better battery technology (there surely will be) and get a drop-in replacement weighing 500lb less with better range.

 

BMW won't do it. 3rd parties might (but unlikely), but putting 3rd party battery in a BMW screams bad idea.

 

It would be interesting if by that time there was better battery technology (there surely will be) and get a drop-in replacement weighing 500lb less with better range.

I do think there will be companies that service batteries using the existing technology but doubt you will be able to benefit from new technologies because you would have to change the battery management and I think that would be too costly and probably unfeasible.

 

Not likely a drop in with new technology, too risky for everyone including the 3P so they would need to disclaim the heck out of that.

Besides, you also change the driving and handling characteristics away from what was originally designed. I'm sure there will be at least one YouTuber who'll try it but they'll be in the minority.

More likely is the cell by cell replacement or refurbishment of existing packs.

 

That's too bad, I was hoping for a power wheels type conversion where you can drop in an extra battery to double the voltage, but instead drop in a future solid state battery with less weight and a higher voltage/capacity and rip it. 😛

 

There's always, always a chance:

 

I think the concept of owning a car more than 8 years is really at the heart of the discussion here. Even in an ICE at the same time your HP goes down due to engine fatigue, timing belts, and general wear. If bought a BMW 328 from say 2010 or so and bought a brand new equivalent BMW 330. Even if their specs were the same the newer car would most likely be able to ride better. So really I am thinking is the car useable enough in 8 years. I have had my I4 for a year now and since I started charging from about 20% give or take to 80% I limit charge cycles to ONLY when I need to charge so once every two weeks or so as I work from home. That only about 52 weeks x's 2 a years so let's pad it to be 104 up to 110 charges. I don't go over 80% anymore.

I have noticed no noticeable decline in my battery. The only thing I really noticed is I get about 5 to 10% more charge in the spring and summer and now it's coming back down. My cell phone uses Lithium Ion and I have a Pixel 6. I charge it every night wirelessly, which technically is overcharging it. But I get a new phone in 3 years years usually. I notice MAYBE a 10% decline at the very end of life. So personally I don't think the battery is going to go from working flawlessly to being 40% of what it once was in year 8. And I forgot my US warranty, anyone can correct me, but I thought it was 10 years 60,000 miles for power train which is the battery. Driving from home and limited driving I will be covered for close to 8 years.

But I honestly plan to own the car till I at least have mine paid off as I financed about 28k of the total cost. So after six years I will think again. As of now though, nothing beats this car I have ever driven so I want to enjoy that for a year or two before getting morbid about how in eight years there will be cooler things.

 

What people found in old Teslas is they retain >90% of battery capacity years later. Given I don't use more than 25% battery on all but a handful of days a year, I'm not at all worried.

 

Let's see whose car last longer.

Or maybe it will be a case of let's see who lasts longer.

My warranty expired a long time ago and I haven't always lived life 20-80% 😲

 

Just like my last car, Jag XF S, I plan to drive this in a way that makes me happy! (sorry still not over playing with launch control) after 4 years will be handed back to the lease company. I expect that both battery and Emotor tech will have jumped (Big), so may as well take advantage. After that will re think.

i keep my car between 20 and 90%soc.

 

Based on our 2015 i3 with 55,000 miles the battery lost only 4%. However the connectivity is gone since it was based on 2G technology. However since this is our city car it is not a big deal. On an 8 year old i4, Apple CarPlay should be OK even the car can’t connect to the internet.

 

I would consider a much higher capacity new technology battery with the same weight as the current one so the driving characteristics would not be affected.

 

let us hope the things will exist, plus fit into the cells in our battery case.

If not, I will eke out a few more years on reduced range until there is a battery to fit it.

 

Your belief the batteries wear out in 8 yrs is, my bet, legitimately based on your cell phone experience. So not the case when charging is managed by software to allow you to only (mostly) charge to 80 and most importantly never allows you to anywhere near empty the battery.

 

I don't know about Android phones but Apple has started to recommend only charging to 80% unless 100% is actually needed the next day. That to extend the life of the iphone battery.

80% is what BMW and Tesla among others recommend as a charge limit unless going on a trip.

 

Just like a ICE powered car, EV power trains aren't going to break as soon as the warranty runs out. High mileage EVs generally continue to function just fine, just with degraded but still serviceable battery capacity.

 

ICE powered cars lose power and torque as the engine ages anyway, but no one seems to complain about losing 10% or more of the ‘as built’ power, and most likely don’t even know.